Adaptation Pathways
The Adaptation Pathways project, also known as the Perspectives Project, finished in autumn 2012. In this interdisciplinary and participatory project, ICIS, Utrecht University, Twente University, Deltares, KNMI, Pantopicon and Carthago Consultancy, have developed and applied a novel scenario method to identify sustainable water management strategies for lowland rivers.
Through an interactive serious game we have explored transient scenarios (‘storylines’) for the lower Rhine River over the forthcoming century. We have explicitly considered the interactions between the physical and social components of the water system using an Integrated Assessment Meta Model. In the game (‘de Waas’) different angles to look at the water system were merged: stakeholder perspectives, the policy arena, hydrology and climate change. Players were confronted with surprising developments, both from the water system and society. Meanwhile their perspective on the system could change, leading to new types of negotiations, decisions and social support.
Results of the project include a) that stakeholders could actually experience different types of uncertainty and what that means for decision-making, b) a method to assess perspectives and social support for river management strategies, c) different pathways into the future for adaptive policy-making, d) insight in the role of the policy arena in long term policy making and e) insight in serious gaming as an interactive tool for exploring the future. Project output includes two dissertations, a serious game, and numerous publications in national and international journals.
The game, Sustainable Delta, helps participants to learn about preparing for an uncertain future. Participants have the assignment to develop a sustainable water management plan for a river delta. In an interactive setting they implement strategies. Once the future unfolds, the participants experience what happens in the delta and its environment. They can implement additional actions, if necessary. After the simulation of 100 years, the participants and facilitators reflect on the developed storyline and adaptation pathway, and discuss what triggered this pathway, how it can be improved, and how exploring adaptation pathways can help to develop a sustainable water management plan .