Hoax – that’s just what they want you to think

Jan-Willem van Prooijen’s new book Hoax explores why conspiracy theories proliferate and how they undermine democracy and societal cohesion.

Jan-Willem van Prooijen has been studying conspiracy theories since 2008 and wanted to share his insights and discoveries with a broad audience. The result is Hoax – Waarom mensen in complotheorieën geloven [why people believe in conspiracy theories]. “The topic has received lots of attention in recent years, especially since the [COVID-19] pandemic and [former US President Donald] Trump. It’s very relevant, also on a personal level: many people have someone close to them who believes in conspiracy theories and they have to cope with that.” 

The September 11 attacks in 2001 and the conspiracy theories surrounding it initially triggered Van Prooijen’s interest. “I noticed that friends of mine, intelligent people who are doing alright for themselves, believed in it. It’s not just a fringe phenomenon. I was intrigued and there wasn’t much research on it at the time.”

Strong narratives, simple explanations

A conspiracy theory is the belief that a group of actors colludes in secret to pursue nefarious goals. Conspiracy beliefs are not always mistaken; they are unproven, unlikely and almost always, but not necessarily, untrue. Conspiracies, however, do occur, most often in the form of corruption. “Think of secret deals between politicians or on the work floor; think of the Volkswagen Diesel scandal or FIFA bribery… In countries with more actual corruption, citizens are likelier to believe in conspiracy theories – which is understandable.”

Van Prooijen cites a 2017 US survey, which showed more than 60% of the population believed the Kennedy assassination was a conspiracy, while 1% believed the earth was flat. So far so amusing, but the knock-on effects of adhering to conspiracy theories are serious: lower vaccinations rates among children for e.g. measles, violent protests and increasing polarisation.

Research correlates conspiracy theories with overestimating one’s own knowledge and understanding, with followers favouring a simpler worldview. “Even complicated conspiracy theories at the end of the day offer a simple explanation to very complex phenomena. That increases your confidence in your understanding the world.” Van Prooijen also points to the link between narcissism and belief in conspiracy theories. “People who structurally overstate their skills and knowledge are more vulnerable.”
 

Satanic paedophile space lizards and social media

The internet and social media have certainly changed things, in that information spreads much faster than ever before. “The conspiracy theories around Pearl Harbour took months to spread, whereas now it would be an hour. But that doesn’t mean it’s now worse than ever; conspiracy theories proliferated during medieval times or the 1930s for example.”

Another problem are echo chambers, online spaces, including social media feeds curated by algorithms, that feed users’ world views back to them. This removes the social corrective, i.e. being made to understand by the majority that one’s views are outlandish or silly. Some hypothesise that this is the reason bizarre theories like flat earth or satanic paedophile space lizards ruling over us are gaining in popularity. “The perceived consensus in your echo chamber is enough for you to become convinced.” 

The interactive nature of social media is favourable, not only because of the lack of quality control. “Real news gets old very quickly – you post it and it has gotten old by the end of the day. There is an early peak of consumption but after that, it dissipates fast. Fake news and conspiracy theories don’t get old so quickly – they keep being reposted and stick.” Since they deviate from consensus narratives, there are new audiences to reach for longer. They retain their novelty-, shock- and thus entertainment-value.

Bookcover Hoax

Jan-Willem van Prooijen's book Hoax is now available.

One’s gain, another’s loss

There are financial incentive structures too. “Influencers, like Alex Jones before his several convictions for defamation, make millions from perpetuating conspiracy theories energising and manipulating their followers. Politicians use them to promulgate their ideas by frightening and mobilising voters.” Van Prooijen points out that while populism exists on both sides of the political spectrum, right-wing politicians seem to benefit significantly more in electoral terms. 

A politically relevant conspiracy theory is the sovereign citizen movement, the belief you can declare yourself independent of government, thus elevating yourself above the laws of the land, including crucially any obligation to pay taxes. “People use fake diplomat stickers; print their own driver’s licences from the internet, and so forth – all of which is illegal and very problematic, particularly for the people themselves, who get into financial and legal trouble.”

While that might make one chuckle, it’s a real problem. “There are about 10,000 people who wrote to the Netherlands tax authorities to declare themselves sovereign. They’re often desperate people who see this as a way out.” Van Prooijen adds that there is also a (mistaken) belief that the Dutch state has reserved €1.5 million for every citizen.
 

Respect and intellectual humility 

The term wappie (roughly looney) rose to prominence in Dutch discourse during the pandemic. It was used to label those vocally espousing conspiracy theories and reflected an understandable desire to dismiss and exclude. However, according to Van Prooijen, this undermines the foundations of civic and democratic society. “With this book, I want to create understanding between people, to show that anyone can fall for conspiracy theories. Sure, some are more susceptible than others but that doesn’t mean they are crazy.”

More than anything, he wants dialogue to continue. “In the last chapter, I advise how to keep talking to people close to you who have fallen for conspiracy theories.” Here, it is important to keep in mind that the perceived fervour and defensiveness of those affected makes sense from their point of view: if it were true that the government were secretly microchipping people, you’d want to shout it from the rooftops – and you’d be frustrated by those unable or unwilling to acknowledge this ‘truth’ and act on it.

“Dialogue is not easy and it doesn’t always work,” warns Van Prooijen. “First of all, don’t get antagonistic. It’s really important to create an atmosphere of mutual respect and then oppose their perspective. It also helps if you are actually knowledgeable about the topics at hand.” In addition to the actions caused by adhering to untrue beliefs, Van Prooijen thinks polarisation between those believing conspiracy theories and or fake news and those who don’t is a real problem.

“In general, with influencers harnessing the internet to exploit conspiracy theories for financial gain, it will become imperative to educate people better, especially in high school, how to recognise these techniques and most importantly to think critically, to carefully look at all the evidence and deliberate rationally. Intellectual humility, the realisation that actually you don’t know much about the world, is more important than ever.”

Text: Florian Raith

“Intellectual humility, the realisation that actually you don’t know much about the world, is more important than ever.”
Jan-Willem van Prooijen

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