8 April 2020

Good prediction models for COVID-19 are urgently needed

Prediction models for the coronavirus (COVID-19) are being developed worldwide: who runs a greater risk of getting it, which patients with symptoms actually have the virus, and what characteristics and test results are key to determining the progression of the disease? An international study of 31 models underlines the need for more data to be shared. ‘Most prediction models are currently not scientifically reliable enough to serve as a basis for medical decisions.’