Emmanuel Macron or Marine LePen will be the next French President, and of the two, Macron appears to be the most probable candidate to win. However, the French system is a semi-Presidential system, which means that the President, though possessing some own powers, has to share many powers with a prime-minister and his/her government and with parliament. Some time ago the presidential elections were reduced to every five years (instead of the previous seven) in order to run a president's term parallel to parliamentary elections. Why? Well to ensure that a presidential candidate and majority in parliament are similar so that president and prime-minister/government are of the same party affiliation and jointly can pursue their policies and can enjoy a parliamentary majority. Avoiding past events that this was not the case and which were called 'cohabitation'.

However, might this not happen again after the upcoming parliamentary elections? With Marine LePen as president, such a situation is highly likely. The National Front is better represented in the European Parliament than in the French Assembly. That is why LePen sits in the EP and not in the National Assembly.

But how about Macron? The two large political parties/movements have been wiped out in the first round (republicans and socialists). Will Macron's movement (En Marche) be able to have a solid majority after parliamentary elections, maybe with the support of other political parties? Or will he have to seek a complicated coalition government and an accompanying prime minister, re-establishing cohabitation? That will definitely then hamper his possibilities to implement his agenda and political program.

No matter what, cohabitation will highly frustrate LePen in case of her presidency, and reduce the possibilities of Macron, if it does occur. For the effectiveness of his presidency and the faith people decreasingly have in French politics, it is to be hoped that cohabitation can be avoided.

 This blog is publiced on Law Blogs Maastricht