Country Risk Analysis
Full course description
The Asian Crisis in 1997-1998, Argentina's default in 2001 and the recent economic downturns in Brazil, Russia and South Africa underline the relevance of country risk analysis for companies, policymakers and NGOs. This course teaches you the skills to study country risks in Emerging Markets from an economic perspective. What kind of research framework do banks use to assess country risk, and which concepts are pivotal in this regard? What are important economic risk drivers, and what are their critical values? How can these economic risk drivers affect country risk? To answer these questions, you complete an assignment in which you collect open source data required for a thorough economic risk analysis of a particular country. In the next assignment, you write the economic risk section of a country risk report about the same country. To prepare for this section, you learn how to use the ‘causal chain canvas’ tool to visualize the direct and indirect effects of a change in economic risk drivers. In the final assignment, you compare the economic risks of your home country with the home countries of your teammates. You will present your findings in class. Interactive lectures and roundtable discussions help you prepare for your assignments.
- Designing an analytical framework to study the country risks in Emerging Markets;
- Comparing the macro-economic risks and the underlying drivers of different countries;
- Assessing the impact of changes in other economies and the world economy on one particular country;
- Finding, selecting and interpreting open-source data;
- Boosting your employability by acquiring valuable skills required for positions in business, government and academia.
- Strong motivation and good command of English are essential to get a pass for the course;
- Basic knowledge of economic ideas and/or trends is recommended;
- Aimed at Bachelor/ Master/ PhD students in Economics/ Business/ Political Sciences/ International Relations/ Geography/ History. If in doubt, please contact Leonhardt for personal course selection advice.
Below you find some general reading suggestions. It is not required to do some reading before the course. If you like to read something, select the sources that are closest to your research interests. Alternatively, please ask Leonhardt for personal reading advice.
▪ Iranzo, S. (2008) Delving into Country Risk. Banco de España, Occasional Paper No. 0802
▪ Van Efferink, L., Kool, C. and Van Veen, T. (2003) Country Risk Analysis. NIBE-SVV.
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2014) How do you select Country Risk Indicators?
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2015) Transfer Risk Definition, Methodology and Ratings [Reading List]
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2015) Sovereign Risk Ratings, Government Debt Defaults and Emerging Market Bond Spreads [Reading List]
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2015) Our Framework of Country Risk Indicators.
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2015) Our Framework of Country Risk Concepts.
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2015) How do you find Country Risk Data?
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2018) Our Template for Country Risk Reports.
▪ Van Efferink, L. (2018) Macro-Economic Risk Indicators [Reading List].