Economic game theories that predict human behaviourNot just a game
Martin Strobel (3 June 1967, Schwenningen am Neckar, Germany)
Associate professor, Department of Economics, School of Business and Economics"
You were also one of the guest speakers in 2005. How has your research developed since then?
“I haven’t made any Nobel-worthy discoveries”, he says with a laugh, “I’m still working on that. My Veni grant has since run out and I’m now busy developing economic game theories. Game theory is the mathematical theory that describes and predicts human interactions. We test various game-theoretic models that are in constant development. Do people behave according to the theory? And if not, how can you improve the theory? Our goal is to find one theory that can describe and predict human behaviour in different situations. This research lies at the borders of psychology, economics and sociology. I don’t see myself as a true economist – I studied computer science and consider myself more of a behavioural scientist.”
What are you currently researching?
“We test economic theories in a lab by placing a group of people in a situation that calls for decision making. For example, imagine a small island with different owners who all have a piece of the coast. A dyke is only effective if it is equally high throughout the island and if everyone participates. If one owner isn’t willing to invest in it, the others will also lack incentive. So the weakest link determines the course of events for everyone. Based on this you can build a mathematical formula on how rationally people act in a situation like this, and predict the outcome using game theory. You can then test it in a lab where you confront people with this situation.
“Computer network administrators are in the same strategic situation. If the security of one computer in the network is too low, then that’s your weakest link. An important difference with the island example is that you can shut down computer networks due to these weak links. The possibility of choosing your own partners has a positive effect on the course of these lab experiments, even if it calls for a lot of investment. Because bad or uncooperative behaviour is punished by exclusion, so people become cooperative.”
What makes your research so innovative?
“In my opinion, all scientific research is innovative. That’s just a given. If it isn’t, that says something about the quality of the research.”
Who benefits from your research? Or, in other words: what are the opportunities for practical application?
“My research is quite fundamental in nature. In the short term, it’s already a challenge to understand human behaviour in strategic situations. In the long run, this type of research could advise policymakers and governments on how to shape regulations so as to steer people towards a certain course of action. If you know how people behave, you can make the rules such that the outcomes benefit society as far as possible.”
Who do you work with, at an international level?
“I work closely with a colleague from the University of London, someone from the University of Quebec and another colleague who recently finished their PhD and now works in Copenhagen.”
